Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,517$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,419.0}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(51,419.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,765$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(436 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,940.7}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,940.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,541$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $216,582$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,140.9}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(213,140.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $25,100$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,130.8}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(24,130.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $74,234$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $209,328$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,773.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(205,773.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,710$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,270.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,270.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $100,704$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $183,500$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{194,670.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(194,670.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,205$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,174.6}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,174.6\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $154,399$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $168,518$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,797.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(177,797.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,763$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,712.6}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,712.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $93,092$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $40,434$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,893.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(41,893.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,003$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(383 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,058.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,058.6\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,293$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,082$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(996 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,608.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(26,608.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,669$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(125 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,042.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,042.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,408$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,176$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(921 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,028.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,028.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,286$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(29.5 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,667.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,667.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,504$ on 2020-05-02
